Weekly #76: "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth"

Portfolio +10.2% YTD, 3.8x the market since inception. Plus, why I'm learning to trust my gut and what it's telling me now.

Apr 05, 2026

Meme showing a school bus labeled PLAN getting hit by a freight train labeled LIFE HAPPENS, illustrating how unexpected events disrupt even the best-laid investment strategies. Beating The Tide Weekly #76 header image.

Hello fellow Sharks,

The market recovered a bit this week as investors grew optimistic the war will end soon, buoyed by Trump’s comments. The portfolio still outperformed the S&P 500, widening the gap. If you want to skip straight to the numbers, jump to the Portfolio Update.

I am back in Toronto!

We arrived yesterday. Because I was busy last week finalizing things for the trip, I was only going to share the portfolio update in this Weekly as I had no time for anything else. I had everything planned. I called my internet provider to ensure internet was reinstated two days before we arrived, and I unfroze my phone plan to be active on April 3rd. Everything was planned so I could hit the ground running.

But life happens.

When we arrived, I noticed all my Google devices were offline. I thought it would be a simple router reset. That didn’t work. I was going to switch my SIM to my Canadian one but I lost it. I couldn’t find it. So I had no way to reach my internet provider. I asked my neighbour to share her Wifi. I used that to troubleshoot the internet, and it took 2 hours of troubleshooting. We didn’t get anywhere. On Monday they will ship me a new router.

As for the phone, I just got a new number and I am using my phone’s data to write this…fun times!

Now, back to the trip. The trip was long and I had lots of time inside my head. I read a bit and listened to some podcasts, but between comforting a crying baby and calming down my dog who couldn’t take it anymore in the carrier after hours, it was difficult. Even when everyone was quiet, I still couldn’t relax. I am a big guy and when I had tried to get a seat with extra leg room, they were not available.

So I had 12 hours inside my head, and I reflected on many things…some investment, some not. I thought you would find my thoughts on following your gut valuable.

Enjoy the read, and have a great Sunday.

~George

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Thought Of The Week

People Trust My Gut Feeling More Than I Do.

Last week, when everything was free-falling, some of you reached out to let me know that they doubled down on MU at $330. They are already +10% up on that trade.

Micron Technology MU 1-hour candlestick chart from Cboe One showing price action between $330 and $470, with a recovery to $366.18. Subscribers who doubled down near $330 gained +10% within days. Chart via TradingView.

But then there is a long-time subscriber who only buys my top annual picks. When I gave him the diversification explanation, he would argue that when you have high conviction you should go all in. I argued with him and explained that when I run a 10-stock portfolio, the drawdown is more than my stomach can handle, but he stuck to his beliefs. And I admit that he has a point. While I would never go to a single-stock portfolio (or two-stock in hhis case), I understood his point.

In January, I closed the AGX 0.00%↑ position at $313.90, representing a +166% gain.

Why I’m Closing AGX after a +166% Gain

George Atuan, CFA

Jan 14

Read full story

I argued that the stock could go further up, but AGX no longer had the right risk:reward profile. Well, that subscriber sent me a note that he was holding on to AGX…and within 2 days after I sold, the stock jumped to $395 and last week it jumped to $575.

Argan Inc AGX stock chart showing the Beating The Tide sell alert at $313.90 in January 2026 for a +166% gain, followed by a continued rally to $575. Illustrates the cost of selling too early when gut instinct signaled further upside.

If I had kept the shares, the upside would have been 388% rather than 166%.

So while my gut was telling me there was room for AGX to go up, my rigid risk:reward formula told me it was time to let go. I am not going to abandon the risk-to-reward ratio in my investment process. But this made me realize that I should start listening more to my gut feeling.

Another gut feeling moment was in late 2025. I had a feeling the energy sector was being ignored. I had the data to back it up and wrote about it.

Weekly #58: The S&P 500 Isn’t as Expensive as You Think… and One Sector Is Still Cheap

George Atuan, CFA

November 30, 2025

Read full story

That article went viral and it is still the most popular article in Beating The Tide.

So far my call has been right.

chart comparing State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF XLE total return of +32.97% versus S&P 500 total return of -3.47% from December 2025 to April 2026. Validates Beating The Tide energy sector call from Weekly #58.

But did I turn all my portfolio into energy stocks? No. Two weeks after that article on December 16, 2025 I added one energy stock to the portfolio (up 67%). Three months after that, on March 16, 2026, I added another energy position (up 11.1%).

Decades ago I read Blink, and it argued that while our conscious processes a limited amount of data that we collect, the unconscious processes everything the conscious does not pick up while we sleep, are in the shower, or our minds are relaxed. That is why sometimes you see a situation and your gut tells you something that contradicts the data you see. That’s the unconscious interpreting itself.

So I have known that for decades, and while I have learned to trust my gut a bit more, there is still room for improvement.

Another instance that comes to my mind is February 2020. By that time we had heard about COVID in China. I knew it was a matter of time before it became a global pandemic, so I bought puts on the S&P 500 far out of the money. That is something I rarely do unless I want some insurance on my portfolio. I don’t go crazy. I only buy one contract far out of the money for 5 cents, so it costs me $50.

I remember that more news kept coming out of China about COVID and the S&P 500 was hitting all-time highs. So when it came time to roll over the put, I just didn’t… huge mistake.

TradingView S&P 500 weekly chart showing the 2020 COVID crash and recovery, created by george_atuan_cfa. Illustrates the missed opportunity from not holding far-out-of-the-money puts during the pandemic drawdown.

So the 5 cents would have been worth at least $500. That is, my $50 investment would have been worth $500,000!

That happened because I didn’t listen to my gut feeling.

So now what is my gut feeling telling me?

Even though Trump makes it sound like the war will be over soon, the market is not agreeing with him.

And my gut feeling tells me this is just the beginning. I think World War III is coming (a friend of mine argues that we are already in WWIII).

So if my gut feeling is right this time, what should I do? I think some of our holdings related to the AI theme would be hurt. I should also increase our oil & gas holdings, gold, and include defense stocks (we have none).

Actually, the April stock pick is likely an aerospace and defense stock. But don’t hold me to that, I am still trying to talk to my gut about it 😂.

Portfolio Update

The market recovered a bit last week as investors believes the war is ending. The portfolio outperformed the market, expanding our lead.

Cumulative benchmark comparison table for Beating The Tide portfolio versus S&P 500 from March 30 to April 3 2026, showing the portfolio outperforming the index on a daily basis with a month-to-date return of +2.1% versus +0.8% for the S&P 500.

Portfolio Return

Month-to-date: +2.1% vs. the S&P 500’s +0.8%.
Year-to-date: +10.2% vs. the S&P 500’s -3.8%. That is a gap of 1,404 basis points.
Since inception: +55.5% vs. the S&P 500’s +14.5%. That’s 3.8x the market.