Deep Dive: The Eagle in the Desert: My Highest-Conviction Energy Buy of 2026
The only pure-play infrastructure bet on the world's cheapest oil patch. And why an active Middle East war just made the thesis stronger, not weaker
My March stock pick sits at the core of a thesis I have been building since late last year: the energy sector is undervalued, and the best way to profit from this mispricing is not to bet on the commodity itself, but to own the picks and shovels.
This should be a familiar theme if you have been following my writing for a while. Rather than investing in Nvidia [NVDA 0.00%↑] directly, I invested in the infrastructure that makes Nvidia possible: the advanced node manufacturer (TSM 0.00%↑), the data center builders (STRL 0.00%↑, AGX 0.00%↑), the power suppliers keeping those centers running (POWL 0.00%↑), the memory providers (MU 0.00%↑), and the rack manufacturer on which those Nvidia chips sit (CLS 0.00%↑). The same logic applies here. I am not buying a barrel of oil. I am buying the company that gets paid to pull it out of the ground.
Late in 2024, I published my view that the S&P 500 energy sector was cheap relative to the rest of the market.
I followed through with an energy stock as my December pick…
… and on March 16 I added a second position in the same sector.
But this one is different.
The company does not produce a single barrel of oil. It provides the tools, the crews, and the technology that allow producers to pull that barrel out of the ground.