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+76% Since My December Pick: Mr. Market Sold The Best Quarter In This Company’s History. I Rebuilt The Model Instead
The best quarter in its history, the strongest balance sheet it has ever had, and a sell-off that followed oil down. Target raised, BUY maintained.
Nov 10
•
George Atuan, CFA
2
Weekly #107: The Market Had a Terrible Thursday. So I Rang the Closing Bell.
Portfolio +11.6% YTD, 2.0x the S&P since inception. Plus, Thursday was the market’s worst day in 2026, so I went to the TSX to close it.
Nov 8
•
George Atuan, CFA
6
2
3
The Midterms Took a Third Off STRL in Two Days. The $8B of Scoped Work Didn’t Move.
Guidance up 15%, then Texas elected a moratorium governor. That’s an opening bid. Target $825, bear $210. Still a BUY.
Nov 6
•
George Atuan, CFA
4
2
Three Years Of Double-Digit Comps, A 20% Pullback, And The Price Assumes 4% Growth. HOLD To BUY.
The turnaround is finished. The next three years run on empty seats, 30 new units a year and a 4% annual share-count shrink. $247 fair value, 2.1 to 1…
Nov 5
•
George Atuan, CFA
3
I Lost Money On SQM In 2023. At $55, I’m Buying It Again With A $90 Target
The Codelco deal killed the 2030 cliff that sank my last SQM trade. Today’s price assumes lithium never recovers from $14,700 a tonne; my base case says…
Nov 3
•
George Atuan, CFA
2
3
Celestica Q3 2026: A $40B Guide, Priced As If Growth Ends In 2027
Revenue +83%, a first 2027 outlook of $40B, and a FCF cut to pay for it. Keeping BUY, target trimmed to $560 from $575.
Nov 3
•
George Atuan, CFA
1
2
Weekly #106: I Read Anthropic’s 300-Page S-1. I’m Not Buying the IPO.
Portfolio +23.6% YTD, 2.3x the S&P since inception. Plus, Anthropic's S-1 shows $780 billion of compute deals, and why I'd rather own the companies that…
Nov 2
•
George Atuan, CFA
2
3
October 2026
October Pick: It Lost a Ten-Year Contract in August. Three Weeks Later It Raised Guidance Again.
A small cap whose data business tripled year on year at a 63% margin, priced like the industrial supplier it used to be. Fair value $40 vs $24.
Oct 27
•
George Atuan, CFA
3
1
Weekly #105: The Physics of Investing, Part 5, Energy Never Disappears
Portfolio +23.4% YTD, 2.3x the S&P since inception. Plus, where Big Tech’s $800 billion of AI capex goes, and a five-question energy audit for every AI…
Oct 25
•
George Atuan, CFA
5
2
4
TSM Q3 2026: Mr. Market Sold The Stock, TSMC Sold Out Its Fabs
Revenue +41% y/y, the 2026 guide raised for the fourth time to 44%, and my target goes to $582 from $565. Still a BUY.
Oct 19
•
George Atuan, CFA
6
1
Weekly #104: AI Sell-Off: The 3 Numbers That Would Change My Mind
Portfolio +30.6% YTD, 2.5x the S&P since inception. Plus, why last week's AI sell-off started in the bond market, and the three numbers that would…
Oct 18
•
George Atuan, CFA
9
5
Mr. Market Got Generous With My September Pick, So I Added
A regulatory penalty, a soft quarter and a 40bp jump in rates. I cut fair value, kept the BUY and took the weight to 5%.
Oct 15
•
George Atuan, CFA
5
3
3
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