Completely agree that Trump’s tariff reversal is a short-term win for market stability. But long term, the structural issues — like U.S. dependency on critical materials, China’s growing alliances, and our own debt-driven fiscal vulnerability — are still there. Feels like we bought some breathing room, but the real storm clouds haven’t cleared yet.
Unfortunately, I agree with your view on the long-term structural issues.
While the US is building an alternative supply chain for rare earth in Texas, it will take years to be up and running. And Trump drove all US allies to China; that was a real pity. I think he could have been strategic and not rocked the boat while building the supply chain. For example, rather than threatening to occupy Greenland and Canada, he could have secured long-term partnerships instead. Ukraine was ready to make a deal on rare earths as well, but Zelensky did not rub Trump's ego enough.
Many smart people in the US, so I am optimistic that they will find a way to address the structural issues.
the mkt is behaving like trump will lose interest in bribes via '1-on-1' tariff deals, long proven to be nonsense in econ and game theory.
but the debate re:damage to longterm nearshoring is valid. money already spent past ~3 years on land and construction is wasted until equipment capex gets ordered... IRR is not recoverable and at best it will be american jobs for american robots.
china is ecstatic and nicknaming trump 'nation builder'.
Totally agree, George. Great take. The opportunity to secure strategic resources earlier was there, but politics got in the way. Now it's a race against time to rebuild resilience before the next big shock. Curious to see if U.S. innovation can outpace the structural cracks.
Completely agree that Trump’s tariff reversal is a short-term win for market stability. But long term, the structural issues — like U.S. dependency on critical materials, China’s growing alliances, and our own debt-driven fiscal vulnerability — are still there. Feels like we bought some breathing room, but the real storm clouds haven’t cleared yet.
Unfortunately, I agree with your view on the long-term structural issues.
While the US is building an alternative supply chain for rare earth in Texas, it will take years to be up and running. And Trump drove all US allies to China; that was a real pity. I think he could have been strategic and not rocked the boat while building the supply chain. For example, rather than threatening to occupy Greenland and Canada, he could have secured long-term partnerships instead. Ukraine was ready to make a deal on rare earths as well, but Zelensky did not rub Trump's ego enough.
Many smart people in the US, so I am optimistic that they will find a way to address the structural issues.
Let's see how this plays out.
the mkt is behaving like trump will lose interest in bribes via '1-on-1' tariff deals, long proven to be nonsense in econ and game theory.
but the debate re:damage to longterm nearshoring is valid. money already spent past ~3 years on land and construction is wasted until equipment capex gets ordered... IRR is not recoverable and at best it will be american jobs for american robots.
china is ecstatic and nicknaming trump 'nation builder'.
Totally agree, George. Great take. The opportunity to secure strategic resources earlier was there, but politics got in the way. Now it's a race against time to rebuild resilience before the next big shock. Curious to see if U.S. innovation can outpace the structural cracks.