Beating The Tide: Stock Picks That Outperform

Beating The Tide: Stock Picks That Outperform

+126% Since December: The Old Target Isn’t My Sell Signal

A higher target, less upside, and a war that changes how I think about this position. BUY maintained.

George Atuan, CFA's avatar
George Atuan, CFA
Oct 06, 2026
∙ Paid
meme showing that another beating the tie pick crossed its target price

A stock passes your target, keeps climbing, and more than doubles. Do you sell because it passed your target price?

Several subscribers have asked me that about the December energy pick.

Trade alert: The Market Is Ignoring This Corner of Energy

Trade alert: The Market Is Ignoring This Corner of Energy

George Atuan, CFA
·
December 16, 2025
Read full story

It’s up 126%, and the price is well above my original target. If you have been following my picks for a while, by now you know that we encounter that question more than once a month…and should know my answer by now.

I’m keeping the BUY.

That doesn’t mean the opportunity is the same. I’ve raised the dollar target, but the remaining percentage upside is smaller. The business has delivered, the balance sheet has improved, and the war has pushed fuel markets far beyond the assumptions I used when we entered.

In this update, I revisit what I got right, what I missed, and how much of today’s profit belongs in a long-term valuation. I also explain why this position still has a job in the portfolio while the Iran war continues.

Table of contents

  • TLDR

  • How the stock ranks

  • What I got right, what I missed, and what’s evolving

  • The war changes the economics

  • What the latest results actually prove

  • The cash underneath the refining cycle

  • From $60 to $108: what changed in the valuation

  • What today’s price implies

  • The bear case and the risks

  • Verdict

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2026 Beating The Tide · Publisher Privacy ∙ Publisher Terms
Substack · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture