Beating The Tide: Stock Picks That Outperform

Beating The Tide: Stock Picks That Outperform

+13.8% Since the Pick: A Record Quarter, Still HOLD

Demand held up. Fuel and fleet spending cut my target from $36 to $31, while the rating remains HOLD.

George Atuan, CFA's avatar
George Atuan, CFA
Sep 30, 2026
∙ Paid
Position in Beating The Tide portfolio

A company in my portfolio just reported a record quarter, beat its own profit guide and showed that customers are still booking far into the future. The share price jumped on the news. The awkward part: the same quarter showed how quickly higher fuel can eat the benefit of better pricing.

The position is up +13.8% since inclusion the portfolio. I am pleased with the operating progress, but a good quarter doesn’t automatically make the next dollar invested a good bet. Since my June update, demand improved while the cash cost of running and refreshing the assets became harder to ignore. That pushes my target lower, even as the rating stays HOLD.

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Table of contents

  • TLDR

  • Thesis scorecard after Q3 FY2026

  • The quarter was better than the headline

  • Demand is the strongest pillar

  • Costs and cash decide the value

  • What changed in my DCF: $36 to $31

  • The balance sheet is healing

  • The bear case and the risk/reward

  • How the stock ranks

  • Verdict

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