Portfolio +8.0% YTD, 2.5x the market since inception. Plus I watched AGX pop after I closed the position for +166%, and updated my view on TSMC’s upside and risks.
The combination of 3nm already at a meaningful scale, 2nm ramping with better unit economics, and hyperscalers essentially committing to massive CapEx makes the 25% CAGR guide through 2029 feel almost like a base case. Good info on the tension between de-risking the supply chain with Arizona, but also increasing the geopolitical incentive for a Taiwan shock.
The combination of 3nm already at a meaningful scale, 2nm ramping with better unit economics, and hyperscalers essentially committing to massive CapEx makes the 25% CAGR guide through 2029 feel almost like a base case. Good info on the tension between de-risking the supply chain with Arizona, but also increasing the geopolitical incentive for a Taiwan shock.