Beating The Tide: Stock Picks That Outperform

Beating The Tide: Stock Picks That Outperform

This Latam Utility Hit My Target (+40%) in 3 Months. Now What?

The call played out. The model is refreshed. But my updated rating might surprise you.

George Atuan, CFA's avatar
George Atuan, CFA
Apr 20, 2026
∙ Paid
 A meme featuring Hillary Clinton wearing sunglasses and looking at a smartphone while seated on a plane. The image includes white, bold impact-style text that reads: "+40% IN 3 MONTHS... ON A UTILITY STOCK." The meme humorously conveys a sense of cool confidence and unexpected success regarding a high-performing investment in a typically stable sector.

Back in January, I published a deep dive on a Latin American utility offering 40% upside.

A Boring LATAM Utility With a Not-So-Boring +40% Upside

A Boring LATAM Utility With a Not-So-Boring +40% Upside

George Atuan, CFA
·
Jan 21
Read full story

Three months later, it touched my target price. The rerating played out faster than I expected.

Daily candlestick stock chart of AXIA Energia (AXIA) from January to April 2026, showing a bullish breakout from $9.00 to a peak of $13.50 with a surge in trading volume.

The stock has since pulled back a bit, Q4 results just dropped, and I’ve refreshed the model. The new target is 30% higher. But my rating has changed too, and probably not in the direction you’d expect.

If you don’t want to miss the next 40%, upgrade to paid. Paid subscribers get every deep dive, weekly market analysis, and the full portfolio with real-time updates.


Table of Contents:

  • TLDR

  • Thesis Scorecard

  • FY2025 Earnings Review: Noisy Numbers, Clean Trend

  • Guidance Comparison

  • Valuation Update

  • Risk Register Update

  • Relative Performance vs. Comps

  • Verdict


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