[Trade alert] July Stock Pick: A Record Year, Priced For A Relapse

New position in the portfolio. Here is the short version now, the full deep dive lands early next week.

A decade ago this business was, for all practical purposes, a corpse. Negative equity. Leverage that would have made a lender wince. A stock that had lost most of its value and a new boss whose stated ambition was simply to survive. The market watched it nearly blow itself up, filed that memory away, and never quite updated it.

Ten years of quiet repair later, that same company just reported the best quarter in its history. Management raised full-year guidance twice inside a single quarter. It is buying back a meaningful slug of its own shares, the balance sheet is finally boring in the best way, and yet the stock still trades as if the old accident-prone version is the real one.

That is the whole opportunity in one line: the market is pricing the company this was, and management is running the company it has become. My model says the business is worth double the price I paid. Even if I strip out every temporary tailwind it is enjoying right now and use management’s own deliberately cautious targets instead, I still get a number above today’s price. You are paying for the old company and getting the new one free.

That is as far as I will go out here in the open. The name, the exact price I paid, the full thesis and the downside case are all behind the paywall, and the complete deep dive follows in a few days.

If you want the name and the number, upgrade to paid. Paid subscribers get every deep dive, every trade alert the moment I act, and the full portfolio with real-time updates.