Trade Alert: Closed ALL, Trimmed STRL, Bought My Fourth-Bucket Pick

Today I closed Allstate (ALL) and trimmed Sterling Infrastructure (STRL). The capital is being recycled into a new position in a sector I've spent the past month digging into.

The new name is the fourth bucket of the diversification I’ve been building this year, after energy, utilities, and defence. The pattern is the same one that worked on the April defence pick: regulatory tailwinds doing the work and the operating story turning before the multiple does.

The company is the unglamorous opposite of an AI compute story. It processes byproducts most people don’t want to think about and turns them into industrial ingredients. Every part of the supply chain is regulated. Every cent of the margin depends on commodity pricing. The stock has been cut roughly in half from its 2022 highs. My initial target price shows a +65% upside.

What just changed: a federal regulator finalized the largest mandate in the program’s history six weeks ago. The Q1 2026 print was the first clean read of the new regime. The market hasn’t repriced.