George, would it still be worthwhile to start a position for MU now or is it too late at this point? I know you predict an upside of 22% from where we are today. Do you think the target price is likely to go even higher or is this the ceiling of the stock for a while now?
Yes, I think it is still worth it. My $480 was my conservative base case, but as the thesis validates and we get more data (as we are right now), I will refresh the model and most likely the target price will get higher. Just bear with me a bit as I am working on others at the moment :)
Compelling deep-dive on the memory-as-bottleneck thesis. The stat about HBM plus packaging making up 2/3 of GPU bill-of-materials really hammers home why Micron's already-contracted 2026 HBM supply is a differentiated position. What I found most interesting was the Monte Carlo showing 60% of outcomes above current price even when you stress gross margins and growth, which suggests the downside case is alrady somewhat priced in. That's the kind of asymmetric setup that makes cyclical plays worthwhile.
George, would it still be worthwhile to start a position for MU now or is it too late at this point? I know you predict an upside of 22% from where we are today. Do you think the target price is likely to go even higher or is this the ceiling of the stock for a while now?
Yes, I think it is still worth it. My $480 was my conservative base case, but as the thesis validates and we get more data (as we are right now), I will refresh the model and most likely the target price will get higher. Just bear with me a bit as I am working on others at the moment :)
Compelling deep-dive on the memory-as-bottleneck thesis. The stat about HBM plus packaging making up 2/3 of GPU bill-of-materials really hammers home why Micron's already-contracted 2026 HBM supply is a differentiated position. What I found most interesting was the Monte Carlo showing 60% of outcomes above current price even when you stress gross margins and growth, which suggests the downside case is alrady somewhat priced in. That's the kind of asymmetric setup that makes cyclical plays worthwhile.